09 Apr 2025
Remember the "safe haven" narrative for European real estate as US markets wobble? Think again.
While ultra-wealthy investors might be shifting capital across the pond, the potential return of Trump-era tariffs and the resulting market plunge are throwing serious cold water on the European real estate debt market.
Liquidity isn’t flowing – it’s drying up.
Credit Squeeze
Lenders, spooked by trade war ripples and potential retaliation, are slamming the brakes on risk – especially in commercial real estate.
Borrower Pain
Borrowers now face higher interest rates and stricter loan terms as banks price in global volatility. Financing just got a whole lot harder.
The 10% Threat
Trump’s proposed universal tariff is being viewed as a potential wrecking ball for Europe – one that could ignite inflation, derail growth, and send shockwaves through debt markets.
Strategic Meltdown?
High-leverage developers and funds are being forced to re-evaluate strategies as the era of easy money fades fast.
We could be witnessing a seismic shift – from speculative development to a defensive retreat into ‘core’ assets, as protectionist policies start to rewrite the rules.
Bottom Line
Trump’s tariff shadow and market jitters aren’t just background noise – they’re actively reshaping the way European real estate gets financed. In this environment, adaptability isn’t optional. It’s survival.